Gilligan keeps an eye on recreational vehicle sales and says when those turn around, it usually signals consumers have regained confidence.Unemployment is high, recovery is slow, and Americans still aren’t buying Winnebagos. 

That was the economic update provided by Dean Tom Gilligan during a McCombs Alumni Network Knowledge To Go webinar May 12. He shared figures and trends from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, released Feb. 11, 2011.

Recreational vehicle sales are one of Gilligan’s preferred barometers for evaluating economic recovery. He said 2011 sales are projected to be about two-thirds of those in 2007, and that while new car and truck sales are up, they’re about 15 percent lower than the previous typical annual level.

In other words, consumer activity is still being dampened by fear, and economic recovery remains elusive.

Not good news for the 9.1 percent of Americans economists predict will be out of work in 2011. The 2010 unemployment rate was 9.6 percent. And with an estimated 3 percent GDP growth per year, it will likely be ten years before unemployment gets as low as 5 percent.

Gilligan did share a few bright spots. The U.S. has seen real GDP growth every quarter since Q3 in 2009. The Dow is up about 90 percent over its spring 2009 low (but still remains 10 percent below its fall 2007 high). And while real estate assets continue to deteriorate, household and non-profit financial assets are recovering, getting closer to 2007 levels.

Energy, Innovation, Taking Center Stage at McCombs

Gilligan then switched gears and offered an update on the McCombs School, including energy and innovation initiatives and the budget status.

McCombs has made significant moves to bolster its energy offerings, including hosting three conferences this year, launching the MBA CleanTech concentration, and developing an energy management certificate for undergraduates.

This fall, UT, led by McCombs, is launching the University of Texas Energy Poll, which will focus on public opinion towards energy and the environment.

"We want McCombs to be the place people come when they have questions" about energy, said Gilligan.

On the innovation front, last year McCombs absorbed the Master of Science in Technology Commercialization (MSTC) program, a one-year intensive that teaches how to identify new technologies with market potential, bring them to market and create wealth in the process.

And through entrepreneurship hub Texas Venture Labs, last year 50 students worked on 20 teams to build new companies, eight of which received venture funding, totaling more than $11 million.

Gilligan is also working with Cockrell School of Engineering Dean Gregory Fenves and UT's Office of Technology Commercialization to promote UT and Austin innovation outside of Texas.

McCombs also established the new Department of Business, Government and Society last year, with core disciplines in applied economics, business law, business ethics and political science. The department's goal is to use multidisciplinary social science approaches to produce useful research at the intersection of government regulation and business activity.

Budget wise, the school is planning on a 15 percent reduction in state support. As those funds decrease, donations become even more important, and Gilligan reported that McCombs philanthropy for the first eight months of this fiscal year is already higher than all of last year.

Finally, McCombs students continue to excel. Five of the 10 incoming freshmen who received full-ride UT 40 Acres Scholarships are McCombs students. They were top recruits, and all five accepted.

Listen to Gilligan's full webinar and view presentation slides at the Knowledge To Go website.